Uganda, a country already addressing significant humanitarian challenges, is facing a burgeoning crisis as the number of refugees and internally displaced persons continues to soar. According to the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), between 1.0 to 2.49 million people in Uganda are expected to require food assistance between March and September 2026, with the peak need anticipated during the lean period preceding the first season harvest.
The Karamoja Region, home to both refugees and poor local households, is at the epicenter of this crisis. Refugees, who face limited access to farmland and income-generating opportunities, are particularly vulnerable. Their plight is exacerbated by a constrained humanitarian environment, which has led to food stocks being depleted following below-average production in late 2025.
The World Food Programme (WFP) has reported that current funding levels are insufficient to meet the expected needs through 2026, with a shortfall of 47 million USD identified. The increasing refugee presence in Uganda is a direct consequence of ongoing conflicts in the region. As of March 2026, nearly 2,000,000 refugees and asylum seekers, the highest number in Africa, are hosted by the country, with the majority originating from South Sudan (52 percent) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (33 percent).
The assistance provided to refugees has been reduced since mid — 2025, largely due to funding shortfalls. WFP’s differentiated assistance model, introduced in 2023, has seen the reduction of food assistance from 60 and 30 percent of needs for the most vulnerable groups to 40 and 22 percent, respectively. Consequently, the number of individuals receiving no assistance has surged, from approximately 4 percent in late 2024 to over 63 percent as of May 2025.
Food prices have also reached concerning levels, with staple foods such as maize and beans costing near or above five — year averages. Maize prices, in particular, are similar to the five-year average and last year’s levels, while bean prices are approximately 20 percent higher than in March 2025. These increases are expected to continue between March and September, driven by high demand from neighboring countries and increased fuel costs.
The conflict in the Middle East has further complicated the situation, disrupting global fuel supplies and raising transport costs for international shipping. While Uganda produces key cereals such as maize and sorghum, it relies on imports for wheat, rice, cooking oil, and processed foods, which are likely to see increased costs passed on to consumers.
In Karamoja, the early and above — average start to the March-May rains has brought hope for the pastoral region. However, the anticipated transition to El Niño between May and September could lead to an overall deterioration in food access by September, particularly for poor households.
Despite these challenges, the early rains in Karamoja have improved pasture and water access, potentially leading to increased food availability starting in June. The anticipated near-average cumulative rainfall in bimodal areas is expected to support modest seasonal improvement in food access with the beginning of the first season harvest.
Source: reliefweb
Original author: Famine Early Warning System Network





