As South Sudan braces for the December 2026 elections, marked as the third attempt to conclude the transition under the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), the nation faces daunting challenges. The ceasefire monitoring mechanism has reported a 14% increase in violations and a 43% rise in hostilities involving R-ARCSS signatories by January 2026, prompting the United Nations to express concerns over the dangerous escalation. The ongoing cycle of political gaffes, conflict, mediation, and relapse has been exacerbated by the rivalry between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his detained First Vice-President Riek Machar.
The path to these elections has been fraught with delays and setbacks. Initially scheduled for December 2015, the first post-independence elections were postponed due to the conflict that erupted in December 2013. The peace process, which culminated in the R-ARCSS, aimed for elections in December 2022, but these were further postponed until February 2025. The deadlock within the unity government, the disintegration of the main political opposition, and the escalation of armed activities against the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) have added to the turmoil.
Amidst the chaos, three initiatives are underway to stabilize the nation. The elections dialogue committee, launched by Kiir in January, seeks to build consensus on election-related issues. The Tumaini Initiative, also reintroduced in January, advocates for a National Consensus Charter for Peace and Democracy, emphasizing civilian protection, humanitarian access, and trust-building. The C5+ process, launched at the AU summit, prioritizes the R-ARCSS and calls for an immediate ceasefire and leadership retreat in South Africa.
However, these initiatives face numerous hurdles. The unity government deadlock remains unresolved, and the proposals for unifying the armed forces, drafting a permanent constitution, and implementing transitional justice reforms are postponed until a post-election government is formed. The potential for the election winner to claim a mandate without fully addressing the R-ARCSS’s provisions is a significant concern.
The National Elections Commission faces funding challenges, with the window for meaningful electoral reforms closing as the election approaches. The likelihood of restoring the country to its pre-2013 political setup, as previous efforts have failed to achieve stability, is a troubling prospect.
The AU, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and the international community must collaborate to mediate effectively and prepare for potential clashes as December approaches. Stability in South Sudan hinges on a unified approach to address the ongoing crises.
Source: ISS Today
