In 2024, a survey by ODI Global exposed a concerning reliance on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports by Kenya and Egypt, with imports accounting for up to 85% and 67% of their wheat supply, respectively. This dependency, along with the continent’s $70 billion to $100 billion expenditure on fertilizer annually, has left African economies vulnerable to global shocks. The United Nations reported that Africa’s spending on refined petroleum products surpasses $120 billion annually, further straining the continent’s resources.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlighted that African economies are more susceptible to uncertainty during global shocks, attributing this to heavy reliance on imports, high levels of debt, and weak infrastructure. The World Food Programme (WFP) warned of a “dire “year ahead, predicting that 55 million people in west and central Africa would face crisis levels of hunger.
The situation is exacerbated by the reliance on imported fertilizers transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which puts countries at a heightened risk of acute hunger if the crisis persists. The UNDP’s policy brief estimates that an additional 45 million people worldwide may now be at risk of acute hunger, particularly as the conflict coincides with critical funding shortages for aid services.
In response to oil shortages, South Sudan, which produces oil for export but lacks refining capacity, has implemented power rationing in the capital city. In Egypt, the government declared a national energy crisis, leading to the closure of all commercial establishments at 9:00 PM for one month to conserve electricity.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), an agreement signed in 2020 to boost intra-African trade, has seen slow progress, with only over 20 of the continent’s 55 countries trading under the deal. Experts suggest that strategic autonomy, involving deepening intra-African trade, investing in local production, and building resilient regional value chains, is the path forward for African nations.
Despite a potential truce between the US and Iran offering some relief, former African Union envoy Mulongo warns against complacency. “The truce eases escalation risk but leaves structural vulnerability intact, “he. “This is breathing space, not stability, and complacency would be costly.”.
