African Energy Landscape at Risk: 86 Million Tonne Fuel Shortfall by 2040 Exposed. NAIROBI, Kenya – The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has issued a stark warning: Africa is on track to face a refined fuel shortfall of 86 million tonnes by 2040, with the continent’s dependence on external energy supply routes becoming increasingly precarious. This projection comes amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and supply vulnerabilities, particularly as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz underscore the continent’s reliance on imports.
The AFC’s report reveals that over 70% of Africa’s fuel is imported, with essential goods valued at $230 billion also entering the continent annually.
As fuel import demand is projected to rise from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040, the report indicates that the widening supply gaps are being exacerbated by the Middle East conflict and its impact on global oil shipments.
The economic implications of this fuel gap are profound.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already downgraded Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast for 2026, citing the effects of higher energy prices and tighter fuel availability.
The fuel supply crunch is not just stalling the region’s recovery but also poses significant risks to its economic outlook.
In response to these challenges, leaders like Aliko Dangote, a leading industrialist, have outlined plans to expand refining capacity beyond West Africa. Dangote has signaled a potential shift towards regional energy self-sufficiency, suggesting the construction of a refinery in East Africa akin to his existing Nigerian facility, contingent upon government support. Kenyan President William Ruto has echoed these concerns, advocating for a reevaluation of Africa’s economic model.
He emphasizes the need to move from exporting raw materials to producing finished goods domestically, suggesting that continued reliance on external financing and imports undermines long — term development.
The AFC’s report suggests that without significant investment in refining and industrial infrastructure, Africa’s fuel deficit could deepen. This would leave economies increasingly exposed to global market volatility and supply disruptions, necessitating sustainable and resilient energy solutions. Closing.
The projected 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040 is a wake-up call for Africa to address its energy challenges proactively. By investing in domestic refining capacity, diversifying energy sources, and embracing renewable energy, Africa can reduce its dependence on imported fuel and build a more resilient energy future.
However, this path is fraught with challenges, and the continent must act decisively to ensure it does not fall behind in the global energy landscape.
*Additional reporting by ImNews | Sources consulted: 5*
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This original article was produced by the ImNews editorial team
Source: Africa.businessinsider
Source: Segun Adeyemi
