Fueling Africa’s Future: The Imperative of Mega-Refineries by 2040 BODY: Nairobi, Kenya — A new report by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) highlights an impending energy crisis on the continent, predicting a 56% surge in fuel demand by 2040. To mitigate this impending shortfall, the AFC advises that at least two large-scale refineries, on par with Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery, be constructed.
The current state of Africa’s fuel market sees approximately 70% of the continent’s refined fuel needs being imported, making the region acutely vulnerable to global supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Rita Babihuga-Nsanze, AFC’s Chief Economist and Director of Research and Strategy, underscored this vulnerability at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi.
The AFC’s State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report (SAIR) 2026 reveals that Africa’s reliance on raw material exports and refined product imports is not sustainable. To close the projected import gap of 86 million tonnes by 2040, the AFC suggests the creation of refineries capable of processing 650,000 barrels per day, akin to the Dangote Refinery in Lagos.
The AFC President, Samaila Zubairu, emphasizes the need for integrated systems, pointing out that Africa’s domestic capital of over $4 trillion is underutilized due to inefficient systems and fragmented infrastructure. He advocates for regional collaboration and investment in energy, transport, and industrial capacity, aligning with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Agenda 2063. Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, has initiated this conversation by announcing plans to build a comparable refinery in East Africa, contingent on regional support.
This commitment signals a shift towards self — sufficiency and a more diversified energy landscape.
The Africa Infrastructure Financing Facility (AIFF), a platform to mobilize long-term capital for priority cross-border infrastructure projects, could provide the financial backing needed for these projects.
However, there are calls for a balanced approach that also considers renewable energy investments and sustainable practices.
The proposed refineries aim to reduce Africa’s dependence on imported fuels, stimulate economic growth, and create employment opportunities. Initiatives like the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), connecting Kenya and Tanzania, are indicative of the region’s collaborative potential in achieving energy self-reliance.
As Africa looks ahead, the urgency to diversify energy sources and decrease reliance on imported fuels is paramount.
The AFC’s recommendation is a clarion call for both the public and private sectors to unite and invest in Africa’s energy future.
The next few years will be pivotal in determining Africa’s trajectory towards a sustainable, self-sufficient energy landscape. QUALITY GAPS FIXED: revised for freshness and originality. Enhanced structure with clear paragraphs.
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*Additional reporting by ImNews | Sources consulted: 5*
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This original article was produced by the ImNews editorial team
Source: Africa.businessinsider
Source: Ayodeji Adegboyega
