The Mixed Migration Centre’s latest report delves into the complex interplay of environmental degradation, climate change, and conflict dynamics in Kenya’s northern and eastern counties. The study, based on 1,067 in-person interviews with Somali and Ethiopian refugees and migrants, reveals that prolonged environmental impacts, particularly drought, have been the primary catalyst for mixed migration in these regions.
Between April and May 2025, the surveyed locations of Garissa, Marsabit, and Mandera witnessed nearly all refugees and migrants moving due to the sustained environmental effects. Drought, affecting 89% of the respondents, was the most common environmental driver, with flooding cited by 26%. The need to survive was the overriding motive for migration, with 76% of those displaced by drought moving after livestock loss and 63% due to crop failure. Most individuals waited up to two years for their resources to deplete before deciding to migrate.
Social and community networks played a significant role in migration decisions. Among those who reported household members staying behind, 77% had family members caring for land, 70% for livestock, and 48% due to caregiving responsibilities. The report also highlights the vulnerability of immobility, as staying put can indicate a profound level of hardship.
Climate stress has exacerbated conflict, insecurity, and poverty, with environmental change acting as a threat multiplier. Among respondents who believed climate factors influenced their displacement, 70% cited armed conflict and terrorism, 56% mentioned political unrest and riots, and 43% reported crime and general insecurity.
The report paints a grim picture of the hardships faced by those displaced by environmental shocks. Physical violence (57%), sexual violence (35%), and extortion (56%) were among the top risks for adults, while children faced injury (67%), physical violence (34%), and even death (30%). Many urgent humanitarian needs remain unmet, with about one-quarter of respondents not receiving critical assistance when needed.
The absence of sufficient formal assistance and legal migration pathways has led to the rise of smugglers, who exploit the vulnerabilities of refugees and migrants. In the absence of adequate support, smugglers profit by charging for food and medicine, increasing exposure to exploitation and trafficking.
Despite the existence of community — based early warning systems for climate risks, they remain underdeveloped. Only 45% of respondents had access to these systems, and many relied on traditional knowledge or NGOs rather than government systems. Even with early warnings, 19% of respondents took no action due to a lack of capacity.
Climate adaptation efforts are insufficient, with over 50% of those who attempted new crops or alternative livestock experiencing total loss before migrating. This underscores the need for climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods, as well as more effective social safety nets.
Source: reliefweb
